Due to the large supply of foreign exchange market on Monday, the euro will be worth 103.28 dinars. - On Monday, the new Euro-bond auction, the former bankers snapped up these securities.
Past week working for capital 'bankers the most important and largest business partner was a state. On market first appeared securities in euros, and the auction held on Wednesday, "angry" is all that is all that the state is presented for sale. What percent of bonds worth a total of 200 million euros bankers were literally snapped. For these debt securities Republic of Serbia to them for a year paid 4.48 percent interest. Mostly because of this, the national currency will start working next week on the exchange list, welcome stronger than it was at the end of the week. Thus, on Monday, one euro worth 103.28 dinars.
From the perspective of the state, with much of the debt in euros, the collection of foreign currency in this way is cheaper than to borrow money from banks with interest of at least seven percent. On the other hand banks are doing business with the state much less risky than to borrow the money economy. This interest has increased its offer euros in the market which has further strengthened the U.S.. If the state and bankers make money, then who loses? In the opinion of our interlocutors, in this way to discourage exporters, while imports become more profitable. On the other hand, borrowers will get that rate for the loan will now be smaller, while punishing savers.
Patriot Pavicevic, Assistant Director of the Public Debt, recalls that the issuance of treasury bills and the auction is not a decision that was made overnight. This is strictly procedural act which precedes the decision of the Government, says: - This was preceded by a proper analysis that would determine what effect the show had the exchange rate, the behavior of market participants and the state of the current account of the state from which to pay outstanding liabilities. Not only to foreign, but also to domestic creditors and budget users. Issue of Government bills, like every other journalist commented, realized 100 percent and the state is thus directly into the budget the money received minus the interest - explains our source.
He said that the auction involved 20 participants who have submitted 102 bids. Of these, 29 accepted the offer to the banking sector, and other activities.
This work will, he adds, the state will save money than initially planned, for the interest in such securities tremendously.
- I am sure that your readers ask whether the state are giving up dinarizacije. But this way we wanted to take advantage of very favorable climate in the market, in other words, restored confidence in the state, its institutions and policies of the NBS. We plan to offer the same market and bonds denominated in dinars, as we have done. It is a long-term securities with maturities of 18 or 24 months and three-year treasury bills. We plan to broadcast the securities with longer repayment period - to announce Mayor.
State the job for only one reason, he adds. To timely provide enough money to finance the budget deficit, the Budget Law for 2011. amounts to about 120 billion, says our interlocutor and announce that the new Euro-bond auction will be held on 14 February. Convinced that this will contribute to the stabilization of the market, the dinar exchange rate, increasing confidence in the country. However, Ivan Nikolic, Associate Economic Institute, does not think so.
- It happens to us is exactly what No way not to repeat - is concerned Nikolic. - Even before the crisis, banks have borrowed abroad, inflow of foreign currency on that basis was great and the dinar has strengthened sharply. And far from their central bank withdrew euros to buy government debt securities. Speculative capital increases the supply of foreign exchange market, thus strengthens the U.S., while inflation is easing. But this is not a way to stabilize prices. Because they did not cause price increases, but monopolies and underdeveloped market - said Nikolic, adding that the government cancels the effects of last year reached or discourages exporters who earn more when the euro was worth more.
Nikolić said that this only creates the illusion that the exchange rate stable and to the National Bank of Serbia, seemingly helping to defend the price. Damage from these moves are much larger than benefit, says our source.
- The excess of foreign currency that comes malicious borrowing countries is not used for investment but for the financing of pensions and salaries and current spending. This only creates an illusion of stability.
On the other hand, his counterpart Goran Nikolic, from the Centre for the new policy, believes that the estimates of government to borrow cheaply enough smart. He does not think the broadcast of the Euro-bond state enterprises to compete with banks and thus fewer new loans remains for the economy and population.
- Interest on loans to the economy are much greater than 4.48 percent. That is why the banks more profitable to lend money more expensive. The second situation is when the state transmitted debt securities in dinars, where the interest is around 13-14 percent. Given that there is a consensus NBS and the Government that the U.S. bankers to be stable for a good salary - says Nikolic.
However, Nebojsa Savic, a professor at the University FEFA, does not think so. He says doing business with the state is from the perspective of banks is much less risky than when he placed the money economy.
-The market is located and attractive stock in dinars and euros. For the state, on the other side of borrowing more expensive and banks offer more attractive conditions - says Savic. But he can not be based on short-term trend to conclude whether these long-term exchange rate discourage exports.
As Miroslav Zdravkovic, editor Ekonomija.org site is concerned, this just shows the state in what is a debt trap inflammation. Because that would be paid back debts and cover the red in the state treasury, has agreed to blackmail banks. The main job of bankers has become the borrowing country and they are increasingly losing the incentive to borrow money economy and the population is convinced Zdravkovic.
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